Seventy years ago on this day, Japanese armed forces attacked the US naval base at Pearl Harbor, effectively marking the beginning of the United States' direct involvement in World War II. While we take today to remember this historic and tragic event, I would now submit to you that our country will soon face another Pearl harbor-style event, but this time of the financial sort. Put another way, we are up against the ever-increasing possibility that our country will suffer a crippling blow financially, with an impact not unlike the Pearl Harbor events of 1941. The biggest difference may lie in the fact that our country recovered from the Pearl Harbor attack and emerged stronger, something I do not expect will happen now given the dire state of our nation's finances. A quick summary/reminder of what we're up against: 1) A national debt that now exceeds $15 trillion. We are paying approximately 3-4% interest on this every year, equating to interest payments of no less than $450 billion. Servicing this debt will increasingly weigh upon our economy, and force future generations to work harder for less as we struggle to pay the interest alone, nevermind the actual principal. 2) Routine budget deficits totaling over $1 trillion a year, adding to the aforementioned debt. Our government has promised us way more than they can deliver, and this is evidenced by the fact that every year our budget contains more spending than what we are taking in as a nation. This is called "living beyond our means." It's destructive, adds to the national debt, and must stop immediately. Cessation of deficit spending means we will get less from our government for the same price for a while, but we need to accept that privation and stop selfishly pushing it onto our children and grandchildren. 3) Potential for further credit downgrades, increasing the cost of our borrowing needs. S&P recently knocked the US credit rating down a notch, resulting in market turmoil, but curiously had no effect on our cost of borrowing. That won't last forever -- as future downgrades are made, which we know they will be given our government's inaction on this crisis, it will eventually catch up to us and the interest we pay on our debt will go up. This means more of our country's wealth will be needed to make those interest payments, rather than being used for more productive means. 4) Economic productivity that hinges on consumer spending, to the tune of over 70%. This is unsustainable, simply put. When almost three-quarters of a nations' economic production is tied to consumers spending their income or going deeper into debt, a day of reckoning lies ahead. We need to get back to producing exportable goods (read: manufacturing) and making the country more business-friendly, as opposed to forcing those businesses to move their operations overseas. The obvious question here is, what happens when Americans are so strapped they can't spend anymore? You guessed it -- the economy goes in the tank. 5) Dwindling job market that practically guarantees lower productivity from a GDP standpoint, declining tax receipts, and a lower standard of living for the American people. The persistent 8-9% unemployment (and 16+% underemployment) rate says it all -- jobs have left the country and they aren't coming back anytime soon. This reality has a severe ripple effect, since unemployed people pay less (or no) taxes, spend less money, add less (or nothing) to the nation's economic productivity, which leads to economic slowdown, which leads to more job losses, and so on...you get the picture. If you listened to my November 27 podcast, you'll recall me saying that our political leadership will not address this financial crisis until it becomes a full-blown catastrophe, as they will then have the political cover to get away with any law or policy they wish to see instituted. The September 11, 2001 attacks provide the best evidence of this impotent style of leadership, as Congress only passed the PATRIOT Act (albeit a draconian, liberty-killing law in and of itself) AFTER the Twin Towers and Pentagon had been struck, and Flight 93 had been downed -- not before. Thus, you as an individual investor have to factor into your financial planning the fact that the government will allow this situation to reach catastrophic proportions before acting. Creating some degree of defensiveness against everything from high inflation, dollar weakness/collapse, and a plummeting stock market would be a minimum level of prudence for today's investor. Comments12/10/2011 16:53
I know that stupidity and being a politician too often tend to go hand in hand. That said, I refuse to believe that our politicians are so stupid that they do not understand what they are bringing about. The economic piece is just one piece of the demise of America, albeit the biggest piece.
Reply
Leave a Reply | AuthorMacroeconomic & finance analyst/enthusiast, formerly licensed stockbroker & financial advisor, concerned citizen. ArchivesFebruary 2012 CategoriesAll |
RSS Feed